The Broad Front (FA) could triple its parliamentarians on November 19, in turn, four of its parties risk losing legality by not choosing the minimum of three parliamentarians or achieving 3% of the voting required by law, being Democratic Revolution and the Humanist Party the only ones that would remain.
This is indicated by a study by the Moebius Foundation that analyzed the 16 districts that the FA characterized at the beginning of the year as "priority" districts because, due to their electoral history, they offered greater possibilities of electing deputies and, because of this, they were the basis for the agreement in his current parliamentary list.
The document refers only to the parties currently registered as such and not to movements, such as the Autonomist of which the deputy for Magellan Gabriel Boric is part, which could meet after the elections the conditions to register as a party.
The analysis classifies each district into 5 categories, depending on their likelihood of choice: Secured, Highly Probable, Probable, Unlikely, and, Finally, Unlikely Choice. It also concludes that there would be seven districts with assured or highly probable election, in addition to five districts with serious possibilities of election, that is, the broad Front could choose a minimum of 7 deputies up to a maximum of 12.
Moebius also concludes that his six currently legal parties have serious problems to maintain their legality, being the parties Humanist and Democratic Revolution those that would be closer to achieve it.
In the case of DR, Giorgio Jackson should be elected in District 10 and all other possibilities of the day are letters from the Metropolitan Region, under circumstances that the law requires to elect three parliamentarians in at least two different regions. The community is obliged to reach 3% in regions 3, 4, 5 or Metropolitan to maintain its legality.
While the Humanist Party is highly likely to choose Tomas Hirsch in District 11 and Pamela Jiles in 12, and has a chance to choose Marianella Benavides in 6.
Additionally, he has the possibility of choosing Fernando San Román in District 3 and Cristian Cuevas in District 20, because -although they are not PH militants- they were instrumentally affiliated. That is, one week after the elections, the legality of the PH is played in 5 alternatives from three different regions, but it also has the alternative of reaching 3% in the regions of Arica, Tarapacá and Antofagasta.
The counterpart comes from the parties that risk their legality and that correspond to the Equality Party, which has already begun the legalization of a new party, the Liberal Party, the Power Party and the Green Ecologist Party.
The breakdown of the report shows that the Equality Party does not have any candidate with an assured election and "only the instrumental election of the autonomist militant Jorge Rauld appears in Valparaíso, and it does not appear with much possibility of reaching a vote higher than 3 in three consecutive regions. % The national leaders of Equality, from the beginning were aware of this situation so they have already started the legalization of a new party ".
Regarding the Power Party, it indicates that "it appears with high probabilities of election in District 8, with Claudia Mix but has no other districts with real possibilities of election, as for 3% in three consecutive regions, the only alternative would be in Tarapacá ( 1 candidate), Antofagasta (1 candidate) and Atacama (two candidates and leading the list) ".
And about the Green Ecologist Party notes that "it has only one district with a high probability of election, District 20 of Concepción, where its president Félix González is in open competition with Cristián Cuevas, but they have no other candidate with real probabilities to choose from. As for 3%, it is almost impossible to achieve because it fails to form any three consecutive rights, either because it has no legalities or do not have candidates. "